Steven Spielberg launched the summer blockbuster phenomenon in June 1975 with Jaws, which grossed over $260 million at the U.S. box office. The director re-enters the box office showdown this summer with his highly anticipated thriller, Disclosure Day.
Releasing June 12, Disclosure Day follows a cybersecurity expert, a broadcast meteorologist, and a former federal agent as they attempt to publicize classified proof of extraterrestrial life. This Universal Pictures production marks Spielberg’s return to classic invasion films after over 20 years. This will be the director’s fourth extraterrestrial flick overall, following Close Encounters of the Third Kind, E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial, and War of the Worlds. However, Disclosure Day leans more into 1970s-era conspiracy movie sentiments than straight alien-movie stylings.
David Koepp wrote the script based on an original story by Spielberg. Working with the director beat-by-beat, Koepp went through 42 drafts before finalizing the screenplay—a record for the long-time writer. Spielberg and Koepp have collaborated on various hit films throughout their careers, including Jurassic Park.
Disclosure Day is going into its opening weekend with popular hype and critical raves. However, it faces steep competition in the theater. Disclosure Day‘s predicted domestic opening is lukewarm, though not overly concerning given the film’s budget.
Disclosure Day’s Budget Is Reportedly $115 Million
Disclosure Day cost a reported $115 million to produce. This figure puts the action flick among Spielberg’s higher-budget movies, though it does not touch his most expensive features. His priciest endeavor, Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull, cost $185 million and grossed $786.6 million worldwide.
The marketing for Disclosure Day cost an additional $80 million (via Variety). With no existing brand or IP to advertise on, marketing has centered on the director’s name. This strategy has garnered significant attention for the movie, though it is unclear whether it will translate to theatrical attendance. Spielberg has his strongest pull among older generations who are less likely to attend theaters in droves. Further, Disclosure Day is up against popular films that attract a younger, more active movie-going population—such as YouTuber-made horror hits Backrooms and Obsession.
Disclosure Day goes into its opening weekend with largely positive reviews. The film has a 9/10 from the Screen Rant review and an 82% score on Rotten Tomatoes. However, potential viewers may still wait to see the lauded feature on streaming. While Disclosure Day requires box office success to reach its break-even point, it does not require Indiana Jones-level earnings.
How Much Disclosure Day Needs To Be A Box Office Success
Considering its $115 million budget and $80 million marketing costs, Disclosure Day will need to gross at least $300 million worldwide to see a reasonable profit. This prediction accounts for theaters’ 50% cut of box office profits. The film is currently projected to generate $35 to $50 million at the U.S. box office over the next three days (via Forbes). This prediction falls below Spielberg’s top-performing features.
The director’s high-budget Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull had a $101.1 million domestic opening, though it benefited from existing IP. More reasonably, Spielberg’s last invasion feature, War of the Worlds, grossed $64.8 million domestically. This is close to Disclosure Day‘s desired worldwide opening figure of $65M (via Deadline).
Disclosure Day‘s projected opening does not meet the box office standards of Spielberg, king of the blockbuster. However, the $30–50M opening is not overly concerning considering the film’s budget. This is particularly true if the opening figures land on the higher end of the range, which they appear set to with some predictions going up to $55M. These figures beat Master of the Universe, which cost $170-to-$200 million to make.
Despite its middling predicted opening, Disclosure Day may experience slow-burn theatrical success, à la Curry Barker’s Obsession. Further, the box office is just one portion of a film’s profit. Universal Studios’ aggressive Premium Video on Demand (PVOD) strategy adds about 44% to a film’s theatrical earnings, according to a 2023 New York Times report. Studios enjoy a hefty 80% of profits made from PVOD purchases, versus 50% from box office earnings.
Whether Disclosure Day is a runaway success at the box office, early reviews suggest that it is a triumph for the iconic director.