The midterms may reshape the Senate GOP in Trump’s image

The Senate could look a lot Trumpier next year, even if Republicans don’t do well in the midterms.

Due to retirements, primary losses and bids for other offices, a dozen incumbents already won’t be returning in the next session of Congress — well above the Senate’s typical rate of turnover, which is usually measured in the single digits.

The bigger story isn’t the number itself. Many of the departing Republicans belong to an older, more institutional wing of the party, creating openings for candidates more closely aligned with President Donald Trump in safely Republican states.

• In Louisiana, Sen. Bill Cassidy, one of seven Republicans who voted to convict Trump after Jan. 6, lost a primary and could be replaced by Trump-endorsed Julia Letlow or state Treasurer John Fleming, who attacked Cassidy over that vote.
• In Wyoming, Sen. Cynthia Lummis’ retirement has opened the door for Rep. Harriet Hageman, who rose to prominence by defeating Trump critic Liz Cheney.
• In Kentucky, Sen. Mitch McConnell, the longtime GOP leader who frequently clashed with Trump, is retiring and could be succeeded by Rep. Andy Barr, who is more closely aligned with the president.

In some cases, however, Republicans worry the more Trump-aligned nominees could make the seats more competitive. Democrats see opportunities in Texas, where Trump-endorsed Ken Paxton defeated Sen. John Cornyn in a primary, and North Carolina, where Trump ally Michael Whatley is running to replace Sen. Thom Tillis.

Though Senate Republicans have largely backed Trump’s agenda in his second term, they have shown flashes of independence in recent months.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune joined Republican critics of Trump’s proposed $1.8 billion “anti-weaponization” fund, helping fuel a revolt that contributed to the administration abandoning the plan. Thune has also resisted Trump’s call to abolish the filibuster in order to pass a bill restricting voting.

The Senate is designed to change slowly, with only a third of seats up for election in a given year. But Trump has had a decade to influence Republican primaries and indirectly convince GOP senators who had stood up to him, such as Jeff Flake and Mitt Romney, to retire. 

The shift has left the Senate with fewer of the institution-minded negotiators who could work with Democrats to hammer out a bipartisan deal when needed, a trend that will likely continue with the loss of Cornyn and Cassidy.

The 118th Congress passed relatively few major bills compared with most recent Congresses, and the current session is not on pace to be much more productive.